Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.007839 0.008836 0.009913 0.011164 0.012578 0.014126 0.015952
2026-01-11 0.006358 0.007751 0.009379 0.011426 0.013933 0.016909 0.020717
2026-01-18 0.005376 0.006917 0.008819 0.011345 0.014617 0.018725 0.024291
2026-01-25 0.004712 0.006334 0.008428 0.011335 0.015280 0.020465 0.027827
2026-02-01 0.004140 0.005780 0.007979 0.011152 0.015633 0.021762 0.030828
2026-02-08 0.003762 0.005433 0.007751 0.011215 0.016285 0.023473 0.034506
2026-02-15 0.003403 0.005067 0.007449 0.011123 0.016678 0.024816 0.037737
2026-02-22 0.003188 0.004885 0.007385 0.011356 0.017548 0.026900 0.042229
2026-03-01 0.002853 0.004488 0.006961 0.010996 0.017467 0.027520 0.044485
2026-03-08 0.002598 0.004189 0.006656 0.010786 0.017586 0.028436 0.047261
2026-03-15 0.002359 0.003891 0.006325 0.010500 0.017547 0.029079 0.049617
2026-03-22 0.002276 0.003841 0.006385 0.010853 0.018584 0.031553 0.055258
2026-03-29 0.002164 0.003736 0.006350 0.011050 0.019385 0.033718 0.060602
2026-04-05 0.002071 0.003655 0.006349 0.011306 0.020308 0.036170 0.066687
2026-04-12 0.001931 0.003480 0.006169 0.011226 0.020620 0.037557 0.070930
2026-04-19 0.001816 0.003338 0.006036 0.011216 0.021054 0.039187 0.075762
2026-04-26 0.001686 0.003159 0.005821 0.011035 0.021147 0.040187 0.079456
2026-05-03 0.001602 0.003057 0.005739 0.011097 0.021705 0.042101 0.085106
2026-05-10 0.001504 0.002923 0.005585 0.011006 0.021953 0.043429 0.089680
2026-05-17 0.001454 0.002877 0.005595 0.011237 0.022856 0.046117 0.097284
2026-05-24 0.001339 0.002693 0.005325 0.010881 0.022537 0.046309 0.099639
2026-05-31 0.001250 0.002555 0.005134 0.010673 0.022503 0.047078 0.103290
2026-06-07 0.001160 0.002409 0.004915 0.010390 0.022288 0.047446 0.106081